Friday, August 17, 2007

Bulls Charge But Dow Down -10% In One Month

This market can be labeled as a classic textbook "correction". In the recent market sell-off our technicals got us out of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) the same day before the company released earnings at the market's close. Unfortunately the stock rallied the following day (along with all the others in the stock universe!), but until we return to a confirmed rally, capital preservation now rules and prevails over capital appreciation ...

That said we are currently at 50%+ in cash, and our Dow Jones Trader Portfolio today is up +20% for the year. Considering the latest Wall Street stampede, this portfolio's performance provides additional motivation to stay the course as we are well into the second half of the calendar year.

Dow Jones Trader Portfolio (DJTP) Year To Date % Change as of 8/17/07:

Subsequent to Friday's rally, the Dow Jones Industrials are still off 1,000 points for the same month. It would be entirely in this market's character to follow Friday's euphoria with another fire sale next week or next month ... And as horrible as August has been, historically September is the worst time of the year on Wall Street for average monthly performance.

Got Bull?

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
- Warren Buffett

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